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Opinion polling for the next Japanese general election

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In the run up to the Next Japanese general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 27 October 2024, to the present day.

Pollsters

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The following table shows the pollsters who conduct opinion polls in Japan:

Pollster Database
ANN https://www.tv-asahi.co.jp/hst/poll/
Asahi https://www.asahi.com/yoron/database/
Jiji Press https://www.jiji.co.jp/service/yoron/
JNN https://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/list/search?fulltext=JNN世論調査
Kyodo News[a] https://www.chunichi.co.jp/digican/shuin2024_yoron
Mainichi https://mainichi.jp/opinion-research
SSRC https://ssrc.jp/research/
NHK https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/shijiritsu/
Nikkei https://vdata.nikkei.com/newsgraphics/cabinet-approval-rating/
TV Tokyo https://txbiz.tv-tokyo.co.jp/search/detail?search_word=テレ東･日経世論調査
Sankei https://www.sankei.com/politics/poll/
FNN https://www.fnn.jp/subcategory/opinion_poll
Senkyo.com https://go2senkyo.com/research/
Yomiuri https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/election/yoron-chosa/
NNN https://www.ntv.co.jp/yoron/

Party identification

[edit]

2025

[edit]
Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size LDP CDP DPFP Ishin Komei Reiwa JCP DIY CPJ SDP Others No party Und./
no ans. 		Lead
1–2 Feb JNN[1] 1,010 24.7 6.4 8.1 3.1 3.4 4.2 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.4 41.9 4.6 17.2
25–26 Jan ANN[2] 1,030 35.3 10.9 9.3 4.6 3.8 4.5 3.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.8 22.5 3 12.8
25–26 Jan Kyodo News[3] 1,064 29.6 10.7 14.4 5.4 4.4 4.6 3.7 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.8[b] 19.3 3.8 10.3
24–26 Jan Nikkei/TV Tokyo[4][5] 946 33 10 14 6 3 4 2 1 1 0 – 20 6 13
18–19 Jan Asahi[6] 1,103 23 7 12 3 4 3 3 1 0 0 – 37 7 14
18–19 Jan Sankei/FNN[7][8] 1,005 29.4 10.1 7.2 2.5 2.8 3.5 2.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 – 37 3.1 7.6
18–19 Jan Mainichi/SSRC[9] 2,042 20 11 15 5 2 4 2 1 2 0 – 38 – 18
17–19 Jan Yomiuri/NNN[10][11] 1,015 28 5 13 3 4 4 2 1 1 0 – 34 4 6
11–13 Jan NHK[12] 1,211 30.5 8.1 6.4 3.6 2.7 2.1 1.3 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.3[c] 37.8 5.4 7.3
10–13 Jan Jiji Press[13] 1,180 17.3 5.1 6.6 2.8 3.6 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 – 57.3 3.1 40
11–12 Jan Senkyo.com/JX[14] 996 26.8 17 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.2 6 0.7 1.8 0.7 0.1[d] 29 – 2.2
4–5 Jan JNN[15] 1,018 26.2 8.2 11 2.5 3.2 3.6 2.1 1.2 0.8 0.4 – 37.4 3.4 11.2

2024

[edit]
Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size LDP CDP DPFP Ishin Komei Reiwa JCP DIY CPJ SDP Others No party Und./
no ans. 		Lead
20–22 Dec Nikkei/TV Tokyo[16][17] 774 32 9 14 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 – 24 3 8
14–15 Dec Senkyo.com/JX[18] 996 26.8 17.2 5.7 4.8 2.9 1.8 3.8 1 2.5 1.3 0.2[e] 31.9 – 5.1
14–15 Dec Asahi[19] 1,049 24 9 11 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 35 7 11
14–15 Dec Sankei/FNN[20][21] 1,020 28.1 9 11.3 3.2 2.4 2.8 3.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 – 36.9 1 8.8
14–15 Dec Mainichi/SSRC[22] 2,045 20 11 13 5 2 4 2 1 2 0 – 38 2 18
14–15 Dec Kyodo News[23] 1,056 29.1 11.3 12.6 5 2.3 5 2.7 1.8 2.1 0.6 1.2[f] 22.5 3.8 6.6
13–15 Dec Yomiuri/NNN[24][25] 1,018 24 8 12 4 5 3 2 0 0 0 – 36 4 12
6–9 Dec Jiji Press[26] 1,152 19.1 6.7 5.7 2.5 4.3 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 – 54.6 2.4 35.5
6–9 Dec NHK[27] 1,224 28.7 8.7 7.9 3.4 2.5 1.6 2.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.1 35.6 6.7 6.9
7–8 Dec ANN[28] 1,017 35.2 13.9 10.6 5.2 2.4 2.4 3.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.9 19.8 4.1 15.4
30 Nov – 1 Dec JNN[29] 1,003 28.2 8.5 8.8 4 3.3 2.9 2.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 35.6 4 7.4
1 Dec Hirofumi Yoshimura and Seiji Maehara succeed Nobuyuki Baba as leaders of Ishin.[30]
23–24 Nov Mainichi/SSRC[31] 1,919 21 12 13 5 3 4 2 1 2 1 – 38 – 17
16–17 Nov Kyodo News[32] 1,021 30.5 15.1 9 4.4 3.9 6.9 2.5 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.6[g] 20.9 1.8 9.6
16–17 Nov Senkyo.com/JX[33] 1,003 26.9 16.0 5.6 4.3 4.2 2.5 5.1 1.0 1.7 0.9 – 31.9 – 5.0
15–17 Nov NHK[34] 1,213 30.1 11.4 7.4 3.6 3.8 1.4 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 31.6 6.1 1.5
15–17 Nov Nikkei/TV Tokyo[35][36] 800 30 16 11 5 4 4 5 2 1 1 – 19 2 11
11–12 Nov Yomiuri/NNN[37][38] 1,054 30 11 10 3 3 4 2 1 1 0 – 30 4 Tie
11 Nov The Second Ishiba Cabinet is formed.
8–11 Nov Jiji Press[39] 1,190 20 7.5 5.5 2.6 4.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 – 52.7 3.3 32.7
9–10 Nov ANN[40] 1,025 36.6 15.8 8.9 4.1 4.8 2.8 3.7 1 1.4 0.4 0.6 15.8 4.2 20.8
9 Nov Tetsuo Saito succeeds Keiichi Ishii as President of Komeito.[41]
2–3 Nov Asahi[42] 980 26 13 10 2 3 3 2 1 1 0 – 29 10 3
2–3 Nov Sankei/FNN[43][44] 1,012 25.8 13.7 10.1 5.3 3.7 2.8 3.5 3 1.6 0.4 – 28.3 1.8 2.5
1–2 Nov JNN[45] 1,020 24.6 12.8 9.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.2 31.8 5.8 7.2
28–29 Oct Yomiuri/NNN[46][47] 1,068 25 14 7 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 – 31 3 6
28–29 Oct Kyodo News[48] 1,063 31.8 20.3 9.8 5.3 3.4 6.7 2.1 1.7 1.7 0.6 – 15 1.6 11.5
27 Oct Election results 53.84%[h] 26.7 21.2 11.3 9.4 10.9 7 6.2 3.4 2.1 1.7 – – – 5.5

Voting intention (party vote)

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2025

[edit]
Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size LDP CDP DPFP Ishin Komei Reiwa JCP DIY CPJ SDP Others None/Und. No ans. Lead
25–26 Jan Kyodo News[3] 1,064 26 12.9 14.9 5.8 3.8 4.4 4.1 1 1.4 0.3 0.4[i] 25 1
24–26 Jan Nikkei/TV Tokyo[4][5] 946 32 13 15 8 3 5 3 2 2 1 – 11 8 17
18–19 Jan Asahi[6] 1,103 25 15 15 8 6 6 3 1 1 2 2 16 – 9
18–19 Jan Mainichi/SSRC[9] 2,042 17 14 16 6 2 4 2 1 2 0 1 35 – 18
11–12 Jan Senkyo.com/JX[14] 996 27 21.2 8.8 8 4.5 4.2 7 1.3 2.2 0.8 2[j] 12.9 – 5.8

2024

[edit]
Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size LDP CDP DPFP Ishin Komei Reiwa JCP DIY CPJ SDP Others None/Und. No ans. Lead
14–15 Dec Senkyo.com/JX[18] 996 23.8 22.7 10.3 9.1 4.5 2.7 5.3 1.5 2 1.5 1.3[k] 15.2 – 1.1
16–17 Nov Senkyo.com/JX[33] 1,003 26.3 21.0 10.8 7.8 5.3 2.7 6.4 1.9 2.6 0.7 2.1[l] 12.5 – 5.3
27 Oct Election results 53.84%[h] 26.7 21.2 11.3 9.4 10.9 7 6.2 3.4 2.1 1.7 – – – 5.5

Preferred coalition

[edit]

2025

[edit]
Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size LDP–Komei–led coalition CDP–led coalition[m] Other Und./
no ans.
18–19 Jan Asahi[6] 1,103 34 51 – 15
17–19 Jan Yomiuri/NNN[10][11] 1,015 41 40 – 19

2024

[edit]
Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size LDP–Komei–led coalition CDP–led coalition[n] Other Und./
no ans.
13–15 Dec Yomiuri/NNN[24][25] 1,018 41 41 – 18
15–17 Nov Nikkei/TV Tokyo[35][36] 800 42[o] 13[p] 31[q] 14
11–12 Nov Yomiuri/NNN[37][38] 1,054 44 37 – 19
8–11 Nov Jiji Press[39] 1,190 40.7 32.7 – 26.6
9–10 Nov ANN[40] 1,025 50 34 – 17
2–3 Nov Asahi[42] 980 43 32 – 25
1–2 Nov JNN[45] 1,020 44 41 – 15
28–29 Oct Yomiuri/NNN[46][47] 1,068 43 40 – 17
28–29 Oct Kyodo News[48] 1,063 37.4[r] 24.6 31.6[s] 6.4

Preferred prime minister

[edit]

2024

[edit]
Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size Ishiba
LDP 		Noda
CDP 		Tamaki
DPFP 		Baba
Ishin 		Saito
Komei 		Yamamoto
Reiwa 		Tamura
JCP 		Others NOT/
UD/NA
9–10 Nov ANN[40] 1,025 37 15 9 1 1 5 1 20 13
2–3 Nov Sankei/FNN[43][44] 1,012 46.1 17.4 10.2 2.7 – – – – 23.6
1–2 Nov JNN[45] 1,020 50 35 – – – – – – 15

Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings

[edit]

Approval Polling for the Ishiba Cabinet.

2025

[edit]
Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size Prime Minister Approve Disapprove Und. / no answer Lead
1–2 Feb JNN[1] 1,010 Shigeru Ishiba 37.1 59.7 3.2 22.6
21–27 Jan Morning Consult N/A 24.6 54 21.4 29.4
25–26 Jan ANN[2] 1,030 36.2 41.3 22.5 5.1
25–26 Jan Kyodo News[3] 1,064 35.7 49.2 15.1 13.5
24–26 Jan Nikkei/TV Tokyo[4][5] 946 43 50 7 7
18–19 Jan Asahi[6] 1,103 33 51 16 18
18–19 Jan Sankei/FNN[7][8] 1,005 43.5 48.7 7.8 5.2
18–19 Jan Mainichi/SSRC[9] 2,042 28 53 19 25
17–19 Jan Yomiuri/NNN[10][11] 1,015 40 46 14 6
11–13 Jan NHK[12] 1,211 38.7 39.8 21.5 1.1
10–13 Jan Jiji Press[13] 1,180 28.2 40.3 31.5 8.8
11–12 Jan Senkyo.com/JX[14] 996 36[t] 33.9[u] 30.1 2.1
2–8 Jan Morning Consult N/A 24.5 54 21.5 29.5
4–5 Jan JNN[15] 1,018 41.4 55.2 3.4 13.8

2024

[edit]
Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample size Prime Minister Approve Disapprove Und. / no answer Lead
20–22 Dec Nikkei/TV Tokyo[16][17] 774 Shigeru Ishiba 41 51 8 10
14–15 Dec Senkyo.com/JX[18] 996 34.4[v] 35.9[w] 29.7 1.5
14–15 Dec Asahi[19] 1,049 36 43 21 7
14–15 Dec Sankei/FNN[20][21] 1,020 45.9 47.7 6.4 1.8
14–15 Dec Mainichi/SSRC[22] 2,045 30 53 17 23
14–15 Dec Kyodo News[23] 1,056 36.5 43.1 20.4 6.6
13–15 Dec Yomiuri/NNN[24][25] 1,018 39 48 13 9
6–9 Dec Jiji Press[26] 1,152 26.8 41.3 31.9 9.4
6–9 Dec NHK[27] 1,224 37.7 38.3 24 0.6
7–8 Dec ANN[28] 1,017 38.5 39.8 21.6 1.3
26 Nov – 2 Dec Morning Consult N/A 24.4 53.5 22.1 29.1
30 Nov – 1 Dec JNN[29] 1,003 42.1 52.4 5.5 10.3
23–24 Nov Mainichi/SSRC[31] 1,919 31 50 20 19
16–17 Nov Kyodo News[32] 1,021 40 38.8 21.2 1.2
16–17 Nov Senkyo.com/JX[33] 1,003 39.7[x] 29.9[y] 30.5 9.8
15–17 Nov NHK[34] 1,213 40.8 37 22.2 3.8
15–17 Nov Nikkei/TV Tokyo[35][36] 800 46 46 8 Tie
11–12 Nov Yomiuri/NNN[37][38] 1,054 43 42 15 1
11 Nov The Second Ishiba Cabinet is formed.
8–11 Nov Jiji Press[39] 1,190 Shigeru Ishiba 28.7 38.3 33 5.3
9–10 Nov ANN[40] 1,025 38.3 37.3 24.4 1
29 Oct – 4 Nov Morning Consult N/A 23 53.4 23.6 29.8
2–3 Nov Asahi[42] 980 34 47 19 13
2–3 Nov Sankei/FNN[43][44] 1,012 43.8 49.8 6.4 6
1–2 Nov JNN[45] 1,020 38.9 57.3 3.8 18.4
28–29 Oct Yomiuri/NNN[46][47] 1,068 34 51 15 17
28–29 Oct Kyodo News[48] 1,063 32.1 52.2 15.7 20.1

See also

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Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Database from Chunichi Shimbun.
  2. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.3%; Others: 0.5%
  3. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.1%; Others: 0.2%
  4. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.1%
  5. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.2%
  6. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.4%; Others: 0.8%
  7. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.2%; Others: 0.4%
  8. ^ a b Election turnout.
  9. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.1%; Others: 0.3%
  10. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.2%; Others: 1.8%
  11. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.3%; Others: 1.0%
  12. ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.7%; Others: 1.4%
  13. ^ Some polls refer it as "Opposition–led coalition".
  14. ^ Some polls refer it as "Opposition–led coalition".
  15. ^ "Opposition parties cooperating with the LDP–Komeito government on each policy basis": 42%
  16. ^ "A coalition government between the opposition parties": 13%
  17. ^ "A coalition government between the LDP–Komeito and opposition parties": 30%; Others: 1%
  18. ^ LDP–Komei coalition: 18.1%; LDP–Komei–Ishin coalition: 19.3%
  19. ^ "A new framework through political realignment": 31.5%; Others: 0.1%
  20. ^ Strongly approve: 10.5%; Approve on balance: 25.5%
  21. ^ Disapprove on balance: 15.4%; Completely disapprove: 18.5%
  22. ^ Strongly approve: 10%; Approve on balance: 24.4%
  23. ^ Disapprove on balance: 15.9%; Completely disapprove: 20.0%
  24. ^ Strongly approve: 10%; Approve on balance: 29.7%
  25. ^ Disapprove on balance: 13.3%; Completely disapprove: 16.6%

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b "【速報】石破内閣の支持率が37.1％　前月調査から4.3ポイント下落　2月JNN世論調査". Japan News Network (in Japanese). 2025-02-02. Retrieved 2025-02-03.
  2. ^ a b "2025年1月調査". TV Asahi (in Japanese). 2025-01-27. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  3. ^ a b c "2025年1月世論調査（共同通信データ）". Chunichi Shimbun (in Japanese). 2025-01-27. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  4. ^ a b c "石破内閣支持、横ばい43%　日銀追加利上げ「評価」54% 日経世論調査". The Nikkei (in Japanese). 2025-01-26. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  5. ^ a b c "テレ東･日経世論調査　石破内閣 支持率43%に上昇". TV Tokyo (in Japanese). 2025-01-26. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  6. ^ a b c d "質問と回答＜1月18、19日＞　朝日世論調査". The Asahi Shimbun (in Japanese). 2025-01-19. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  7. ^ a b "「選択的夫婦別姓」6割が導入否定的　世論調査の質問と回答（1月18～19日）". Sankei Shimbun (in Japanese). 2025-01-20. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  8. ^ a b "石破内閣支持率2ポイント下落し43.5％に…国民民主党の支持に一服感も自民・立憲に次ぎ3番手【FNN世論調査】". Fuji News Network (in Japanese). 2025-01-20. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  9. ^ a b c "内閣支持率、参院選比例・投票はどこへ?　世論調査・質問と回答". Mainichi Shimbun (in Japanese). 2025-01-19. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  10. ^ a b c "２０２５年１月　電話全国世論調査　質問と回答". Yomiuri Shimbun (in Japanese). 2025-01-20. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  11. ^ a b c "103万円の壁…123万円より「引き上げるべき」54％【NNN・読売新聞　世論調査】". Nippon News Network (in Japanese). 2025-01-19. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  12. ^ a b "2025年1月　 政治意識月例電話調査" (PDF). NHK (in Japanese). 2025-01-14. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  13. ^ a b "内閣支持、微増２８．２％　国民民主、野党トップ―年収の壁「１７８万円」最多・時事世論調査". Jiji Press (in Japanese). 2025-01-16. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  14. ^ a b c "【速報】比例投票先ネット調査で自民党が首位奪還！国民民主党が立憲民主党超え！2025年1月選挙ドットコムリサーチ". Senkyo.com (in Japanese). 2025-01-15. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  15. ^ a b "【速報】石破内閣の支持率41.4％　前回調査より0.7ポイント下落　1月JNN世論調査". Japan News Network (in Japanese). 2025-01-05. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  16. ^ a b "石破内閣支持41%、5ポイント低下　原発活用｢賛成｣55% 日経世論調査". The Nikkei (in Japanese). 2024-12-22. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  17. ^ a b "テレ東･日経世論調査　石破内閣 支持率 41％に下落". TV Tokyo (in Japanese). 2024-12-23. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  18. ^ a b c "【速報】次期比例投票先（ネット調査）で自民を上回った2党は？2024年12月選挙ドットコムリサーチ". Senkyo.com (in Japanese). 2024-12-17. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  19. ^ a b "質問と回答〈12月14、15日〉 朝日世論調査". The Asahi Shimbun (in Japanese). 2024-12-16. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  20. ^ a b "経済対策への期待は？「壁」引き上げ幅は？　世論調査の質問と回答（12月14～15日）". Sankei Shimbun (in Japanese). 2024-12-16. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  21. ^ a b "石破内閣の支持率45.9％で横ばい「103万円の壁」引き上げ幅は「150万円程度」望む声が最多3割【FNN12月世論調査】". Fuji News Network (in Japanese). 2024-12-16. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  22. ^ a b "毎日新聞世論調査　質問と回答". Mainichi Shimbun (in Japanese). 2024-12-16. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  23. ^ a b "2024年12月世論調査（共同通信データ）". Chunichi Shimbun (in Japanese). 2024-12-16. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  24. ^ a b c "２０２４年１２月　電話全国世論調査　質問と回答". Yomiuri Shimbun (in Japanese). 2024-12-16. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  25. ^ a b c "石破内閣の支持39%4p下落　不支持6p上昇48%で逆転　NNN世論調査". Nippon News Network (in Japanese). 2024-12-15. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  26. ^ a b "内閣支持、微減２６．８％　企業献金禁止、賛成４割超―時事世論調査". Jiji Press (in Japanese). 2024-12-12. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  27. ^ a b "2024年12月　 政治意識月例電話調査" (PDF). NHK (in Japanese). 2024-12-09. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  28. ^ a b "2024年12月調査". TV Asahi (in Japanese). 2024-12-09. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  29. ^ a b "【速報】石破内閣の支持率42.1%　前回調査より3.2ポイント上昇　JNN世論調査". Japan News Network (in Japanese). 2024-12-01. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  30. ^ "Osaka Gov. Yoshimura elected head of Japan's No. 2 opposition party". Kyodo News. 2024-12-01.
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  39. ^ a b c "内閣支持、横ばい２８．７％　首相続投、過半数が容認―時事世論調査". Jiji Press (in Japanese). 2024-11-14. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  40. ^ a b c d "2024年11月調査". TV Asahi (in Japanese). 2024-11-11. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  41. ^ "Land minister Tetsuo Saito takes helm of Japan coalition partner Komeito". Kyodo News. 2024-11-09.
  42. ^ a b c "質問と回答〈11月2、3日〉 朝日世論調査". The Asahi Shimbun (in Japanese). 2024-11-01. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  43. ^ a b c "適切な政権の枠組みは？　「年収の壁」は？　質問と回答（11月2～3日）". Sankei Shimbun (in Japanese). 2024-11-04. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  44. ^ a b c "石破内閣の支持率43.8％　10ポイント急落　「103万円の壁」引き上げるべき8割【FNN　世論調査】". Fuji News Network (in Japanese). 2024-11-04. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  45. ^ a b c d "石破総理「辞任の必要なし」71%　衆院選で15年ぶりに与党過半数割れの結果受け　11月JNN世論調査". Japan News Network (in Japanese). 2024-11-04. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  46. ^ a b c "２０２４年１０月　電話全国世論調査（衆院選後）　質問と回答". Yomiuri Shimbun (in Japanese). 2024-10-30. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  47. ^ a b c "衆院選の結果　「よかった」58％　「よくなかった」25％　NNN世論調査". Nippon News Network (in Japanese). 2024-10-29. Retrieved 2025-01-29.
  48. ^ a b c "2024年10月世論調査（緊急）（共同通信データ）". Chunichi Shimbun (in Japanese). 2024-10-30. Retrieved 2025-01-29.


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