2026 United States Senate election in Texas
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| Elections in Texas |
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 Government |
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Incumbent four-term Republican Senator John Cornyn, who was re-elected in 2020 is eligible to run for re-election to a fifth term in office.
Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988. Due to Donald Trump's strong performance in Texas in 2024, Cornyn is generally seen as a strong favorite to win re-election.
Republican primary
[edit]Due to various votes and positions taken by Cornyn on topics such as gun control[1] and immigration,[2] he is considered vulnerable to a primary challenge.
Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. Senator (2002–present)[3]
- Rennie Mann, president of the Richland Springs school board[4]
Publicly expressed interest
[edit]- Bo French, chair of the Tarrant County Republican Party[5]
- Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present)[6][7]
Potential
[edit]- Dawn Buckingham, Texas Land Commissioner (2023–present) (if Cornyn withdraws)[8]
- Ronny Jackson, U.S. representative from Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present)[9]
- Michael McCaul, U.S. representative from Texas's 10th congressional district (2005–present) (if Cornyn withdraws)[9]
- Beth Van Duyne, U.S. representative from Texas's 24th congressional district (2021–present) (if Cornyn withdraws)[8]
Polling
[edit]Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Ronny Jackson |
Ken Paxton |
Chip Roy |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights (R) | January 4–6, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | – | 42% | – | 25% |
| CWS Research (R)[10][A] | October 19–23, 2023 | 823 (RV) | ± 3.42% | 35% | 14% | – | 18% | 33% |
| CWS Research (R)[11][A] | July 9–10, 2022 | 1,918 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 31% | – | 51% | – | 18% |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[12] | Solid R | January 17, 2025 |
| 270toWin[13] | Likely R | January 9, 2025 |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ Livingston, Abby (June 27, 2022). "'This was fundamentally important': John Cornyn says gun deal shows U.S. Senate can still function". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
- ^ Svitek, Patrick (February 2, 2021). "With John Cornyn's support, new Texas coalition forms to push for congressional fix for 'Dreamers'". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
- ^ Jeffers, Gromer Jr. (May 24, 2024). "U.S. Sen. John Cornyn commits to seeking reelection in 2026". The Dallas Morning News. Retrieved May 24, 2024.
- ^ Lewis, Jason; Fikes, Barry (October 16, 2024). "A Night with Rennie Mann: From Community Stories to U.S. Senate Candidacy". Coyote Nation (Podcast). Retrieved December 5, 2024 – via Podbean.
- ^ Singer, Jeff; Nir, David (December 10, 2024). "Morning Digest: California's next race for governor is huge—and getting huger". The Downballot. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
- ^ Goldsberry, Jenny (December 22, 2024). "Paxton fans flames in tease of primary run against Cornyn". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 6, 2025.
- ^ Steinhauser, Paul; Pinedo, Peter (January 28, 2025). "Key Trump ally to decide on possible run against leading Republican in 'next couple of months'". Fox News. Retrieved January 28, 2025.
- ^ a b Jeffers, Gromer (November 29, 2024). "John Cornyn and Ken Paxton have been trading jabs as a potential primary showdown looms". The Dallas Morning News. Retrieved November 29, 2024.
- ^ a b Solender, Andrew (November 27, 2024). "Scoop: A huge wave of House members is eyeing runs for other offices in 2026". Axios. Retrieved November 27, 2024.
- ^ CWS Research (R)
- ^ CWS Research (R)
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate Interactive Map". 270toWin. Retrieved January 22, 2025.