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2025 Newfoundland and Labrador general election

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2025 Newfoundland and Labrador general election
← 2021 On or before November 24, 2025[a] 53rd →
All 40 seats in the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly
21 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Premier Andrew Furey - 2020 (cropped 2).png
Tony Wakeham 2022.jpg
James Dinn MHA (cropped).jpg
Leader Andrew Furey Tony Wakeham
 Jim Dinn
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since August 3, 2020 October 14, 2023 October 19, 2021
Leader's seat Humber-Gros Morne Stephenville-Port au Port St. John's Centre
Last election 22 seats, 48.24% 13 seats, 38.80% 2 seats, 8.02%
Current seats 22 14 2
Incumbent Premier

Andrew Furey
Liberal



The 2025 Newfoundland and Labrador general election will take place on or before November 24, 2025[a] to elect members to the 51st General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Current party standings

[edit]
Standings in the 50th General Assembly[2]
Affiliation Leader House members
2021 election results Current standings
Liberal Andrew Furey 22 22
Progressive Conservative Tony Wakeham 13 14
New Democratic Jim Dinn 2 2
Independent N/A 3 2

Timeline

[edit]

Changes in MHAs/seats held

[edit]
Changes in seats held (2021–present)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Torngat Mountains October 25, 2021 Lela Evans █ PC Resignation from PC caucus[21] █ Independent
March 7, 2022 █ Independent Joined the NDP caucus[22][23] █ New Democratic
July 16, 2024 █ New Democratic Re-joined the PC caucus[24] █ PC
Lake Melville September 12, 2022 Perry Trimper █ Independent Joined the Liberal caucus[25] █ Liberal
Conception Bay East-Bell Island December 29, 2023 David Brazil █ PC Resigned from House of Assembly[26] January 30, 2024 Fred Hutton █ Liberal
Fogo Island-Cape Freels January 22, 2024 Derrick Bragg █ Liberal Death of incumbent[27] April 15, 2024 Jim McKenna █ PC
Baie Verte-Green Bay March 1, 2024 Brian Warr █ Liberal Resigned from House of Assembly[28] May 27, 2024 Lin Paddock █ PC
Waterford Valley July 5, 2024 Tom Osborne █ Liberal Resigned from House of Assembly[29] August 22, 2024 Jamie Korab █ Liberal

Opinion polls

[edit]

Polling firm Dates conducted Link Liberal PC NDP Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Narrative Research Nov 4–19, 2024 [p 1] 50% 40% 10% 0% ±5.2% 350 Telephone 10%
Narrative Research Aug 6–16, 2024 [p 2] 43% 35% 19% 2% ±5.2% 350 Telephone 8%
Narrative Research May 7–29, 2024 [p 3] 38% 41% 19% 2% ±6.8% 208 Telephone 3%
Narrative Research Feb 7–18, 2024 [p 4] 43% 33% 23% 1% ±5.2% 350 Telephone 10%
Narrative Research Nov 2–26, 2023 [p 5] 44% 38% 16% 3% ±5.0% 388 Telephone 6%
Oct 14, 2023 Tony Wakeham is elected leader of the PCs.[30]
Abacus Data Sep 19–25, 2023 [p 6] 40% 38% 21% 1% ±4.5% 341 Online 2%
Narrative Research Aug 1–11, 2023 [p 7] 40% 37% 23% 0% ±5.2% 350 Telephone 3%
Narrative Research May 4–15, 2023 [p 8] 50% 31% 17% 2% ±5.2% 350 Telephone 19%
Mar 28, 2023 Jim Dinn is acclaimed permanent NDP leader.
Narrative Research Feb 17–21, 2023 [p 9] 46% 36% 17% 0% ±5.2% 350 Telephone 10%
Narrative Research Nov 3–27, 2022 [p 10] 47% 34% 16% 3% ±4.2% 535 Telephone 13%
Narrative Research Aug 3–23, 2022 [p 11] 40% 42% 16% 1% ±6.0% 260 Telephone 2%
Angus Reid Jun 7–13, 2022 [p 12] 36% 45% 12% 6% ±7.0% 201 Online 9%
Narrative Research May 5–24, 2022 [p 13] 48% 32% 17% 3% ±5.9% 275 Telephone 16%
Angus Reid Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 14] 43% 44% 10% 4% ±7.0% 196 Online 1%
Narrative Research Feb 8–21, 2022 [p 15] 49% 32% 15% 3% ±5.2% 350 Telephone 17%
Angus Reid Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 16] 37% 44% 15% 4% ±8.0% 155 Online 7%
MQO Research Nov 19 – Dec 5, 2021 [p 17] 47% 31% 18% 4% ±5.5% 400 Telephone 16%
Narrative Research Nov 2–23, 2021 [p 18] 48% 27% 23% 2% ±3.5% 800 Telephone 21%
Oct 19, 2021 Alison Coffin resigns as leader of the NDP; Jim Dinn becomes interim leader.
Angus Reid Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2021 [p 19] 39% 39% 17% 5% N/A 203 Online Tie
Narrative Research Aug 9–29, 2021 [p 20] 53% 28% 18% 1% ±4.9% 400 Telephone 25%
MQO Research Jun 12 – Jul 10, 2021 [p 21] 56% 26% 15% 2% ±4.9% 400 Telephone 30%
Angus Reid Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 22] 50% 39% 8% 2% ±2.0% 153 Online 11%
Narrative Research May 11–26, 2021 [p 23] 54% 30% 14% 2% ±3.5% 800 Telephone 24%
Apr 8, 2021 Andrew Furey and his cabinet sworn in.[31]
Mar 31, 2021 Ches Crosbie resigns as leader of the PCs; David Brazil becomes interim leader.[32]
2021 general election Mar 25, 2021 HTML 48.24% 38.80% 8.02% 4.93% — — — 9.44%
Polling firm Dates conducted Link Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Liberal PC NDP

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Due to an overlap between the fixed dates of this election and the next Canadian federal election scheduled for October 20, 2025, Subsections 3(4) and (5) of the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly Act states that the fixed date for this election is November 24, 2025. If the next Canadian federal election were to occur before April 1, 2025, the fixed date for this election would be October 14, 2025.[1]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "HOUSE OF ASSEMBLY ACT". assembly.nl.ca. Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. 2020. Archived from the original on December 24, 2022. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
  2. ^ "House of Assembly - NL - Members". Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. Archived from the original on August 8, 2021. Retrieved August 4, 2021.
  3. ^ Staff, CBC News (March 31, 2021). "PC Leader Ches Crobie stepping down as head of party". CBC News. Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on November 1, 2021. Retrieved November 2, 2021.
  4. ^ Smellie, Sarah (March 31, 2021). "N.L. Tory leader Ches Crosbie delivers parting shot as he steps down after loss". Toronto Star. Archived from the original on November 1, 2021. Retrieved November 2, 2021.
  5. ^ Staff, The Canadian Press (October 19, 2021). "Alison Coffin steps down as leader of Newfoundland and Labrador's New Democrats". CTV News. CTV Television Network. Archived from the original on October 19, 2021. Retrieved October 19, 2021.
  6. ^ Mullin, Malone; Kennedy, Alex (July 6, 2022). "Surprise N.L. cabinet shuffle sees John Haggie, Tom Osborne switch roles". CBC News. Archived from the original on July 6, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
  7. ^ "Jim Dinn removes 'interim' tag after being acclaimed NDP leader". CBC News. March 28, 2023. Archived from the original on March 28, 2023. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
  8. ^ Furey Shuffles Cabinet in Wake of Derrick Bragg’s Cancer Diagnosis Archived 14 June 2023 at the Wayback Machine. VOCM News, 14 June 2023.
  9. ^ "Tony Wakeham wins PC leadership, setting stage for next election". CBC News. October 14, 2023. Archived from the original on October 14, 2023. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
  10. ^ Antle, Sarah (November 10, 2023). "David Brazil, former Tory leader, stepping down in December". CBC News. Archived from the original on November 11, 2023. Retrieved November 10, 2023.
  11. ^ "Derrick Bragg, Cabinet Minister Who Devoted His Life to Public Service, Passes Away". VOCM. January 22, 2024. Retrieved January 22, 2024.
  12. ^ "Conception Bay East-Bell Island By-Election Moved to Tuesday".
  13. ^ "Fred Hutton Elected MHA for Conception Bay East-Bell Island". VOCM. January 30, 2024.
  14. ^ "Fred Hutton Sworn In as Minister of Housing". VOCM. February 29, 2024.
  15. ^ "Fogo Island-Cape Freels swings blue with PC candidate Jim McKenna's win". CBC News. Retrieved April 16, 2024.
  16. ^ Smith, Greg. "Paddock, PCs Win Baie Verte – Green Bay By-Election". VOCM. Retrieved May 28, 2024.
  17. ^ "Labrador MHA Lela Evans leaving the NDP to return to PC caucus". Yahoo News. July 16, 2024. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  18. ^ Key Portfolios Shift Hands in Newfoundland Cabinet Shake-Up. VOCM News, 19 July 2024.
  19. ^ Head, Jenna (August 1, 2024). "3 candidates ready to campaign in Waterford Valley byelection". CBC News. Retrieved August 2, 2024.
  20. ^ "Jamie Korab keeps Waterford Valley red for N.L. Liberals". CBC News. August 23, 2024.
  21. ^ Staff, CBC News (October 25, 2021). "Lela Evans, MHA for Labrador's Torngat Mountains district, leaving PC Party". CBC News. Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on November 1, 2021. Retrieved November 2, 2021.
  22. ^ Smith, Greg. "Former PC MHA Joins NDP". VOCM. Archived from the original on March 7, 2022. Retrieved March 8, 2022.
  23. ^ "Former PC MHA Lela Evans joins NDP caucus". CBC News. March 7, 2022. Archived from the original on March 8, 2022. Retrieved March 8, 2022.
  24. ^ "Labrador MHA Lela Evans leaving the NDP to return to PC caucus". Yahoo News. July 16, 2024. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  25. ^ "Independent MHA Perry Trimper rejoins Liberal caucus". September 12, 2022.
  26. ^ "David Brazil, former Tory leader, stepping down in December".
  27. ^ "Liberal MHA and cabinet minister Derrick Bragg dead at 59". January 22, 2024.
  28. ^ Roberts, Terry (February 26, 2024). "It's back to building supplies for Brian Warr as Liberal MHA returns to his business roots". CBC. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
  29. ^ Kennedy, Alex (July 24, 2024). "Waterford Valley voters headed to the polls in late August for byelection". CBC News.
  30. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on October 14, 2023. Retrieved October 14, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  31. ^ Smellie, Sarah (April 8, 2021). "Andrew Furey sworn in as Newfoundland and Labrador premier after tumultuous election". CTV News. Archived from the original on August 5, 2021. Retrieved August 4, 2021.
  32. ^ Quinn, Mark [@CBCMarkQuinn] (March 31, 2021). "Ches Crosbie stepping down #nlpoli" (Tweet). Retrieved August 4, 2021 – via Twitter.

Opinion poll sources

[edit]
  1. ^ "Most Newfoundlanders & Labradorians are satisfied with the performance of the provincial government". Narrative Research. November 26, 2024. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  2. ^ "The Liberals lead in voter support, with the gap between the Liberals and the PCs widening". Narrative Research. August 23, 2024. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  3. ^ "NL: With a gain in support for the PCs, the voter support for the PCs and Liberals is very close". Narrative Research. June 6, 2024. Retrieved June 6, 2024.
  4. ^ "NL: The Liberals lead in terms of voter support". Narrative Research. February 28, 2024. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  5. ^ "NL: The Liberals have a slight lead over the PCs in terms of voter support". Narrative Research. December 5, 2023. Retrieved December 5, 2023.
  6. ^ "Newfoundland and Labrador Liberals and PCs are statistically tied as the cost of living and healthcare are in focus". Abacus Data. October 2, 2023. Archived from the original on October 13, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  7. ^ "NL: While satisfaction with the Provincial Government remains stable in NL, the Liberals and PCs share similar levels of voter support". Narrative Research. August 24, 2023. Archived from the original on August 24, 2023. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  8. ^ "Liberals have a stronger lead in terms of voter support" (PDF). Narrative Research. May 24, 2023. Retrieved December 17, 2023.
  9. ^ "NL: Voting intentions have remained stable, with Liberals continuing to lead in terms of voter support". Narrative Research. March 7, 2023. Archived from the original on March 7, 2023. Retrieved March 7, 2023.
  10. ^ "Voting intentions have shifted and the Liberals now lead in terms of voter support". Narrative Research. December 1, 2022. Archived from the original on December 1, 2022. Retrieved December 1, 2022.
  11. ^ "Voting intentions have shifted this quarter to reflect a tighter race between the PCs and Liberals with the Liberals no longer leading". Narrative Research. August 30, 2022. Archived from the original on August 30, 2022. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
  12. ^ "Atlantic Spotlight: Soaring inflation, floundering health-care systems leave East Coasters critical of governments". Angus Reid. July 2022. Archived from the original on July 14, 2022. Retrieved July 14, 2022.
  13. ^ "Satisfaction with NL premier Andrew Furey's government has declined over the past three months with residents now equally likely to be dissatisfied as satisfied". Narrative Research. May 26, 2022. Archived from the original on May 26, 2022. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  14. ^ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid. March 2022. Archived from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  15. ^ "Satisfaction with NL premier Andrew Furey's government remains stable with Fall 2021". Narrative Research. Archived from the original on March 3, 2022. Retrieved March 3, 2022.
  16. ^ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  17. ^ "Fall/Winter 2021 Provincial Report Newfoundland and Labrador" (PDF). MQO Research. December 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 10, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
  18. ^ "Satisfaction with NL premier Andrew Furey's government declines through 2021" (PDF). Narrative Research. November 29, 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 1, 2021.
  19. ^ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments" (PDF). Angus Reid. October 27, 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
  20. ^ "Satisfaction with premier Andrew Furey's government remains strong" (PDF). Narrative Research. September 22, 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 1, 2021. Retrieved September 23, 2021.
  21. ^ "Spring/Summer 2021 Provincial Report Newfoundland and Labrador" (PDF). MQO Research. July 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 7, 2022. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
  22. ^ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity & political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management" (PDF). Angus Reid. June 9, 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 10, 2021. Retrieved August 5, 2021.
  23. ^ "Satisfaction with the performance of the NL provincial government has declined, but remains strong following the recent election" (PDF). Narrative Research. June 3, 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 1, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
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