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2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee

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2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
Turnout64.04% Increase[1] 9.58 pp
 
Nominee Marsha Blackburn Gloria Johnson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,918,743 1,027,461
Percentage 63.80% 34.16%

Blackburn:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Johnson:      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Marsha Blackburn
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Marsha Blackburn
Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Tennessee. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn defeated state representative Gloria Johnson with 63.8% of the vote. Blackburn significantly improved on her performance from 2018.

The primaries took place on August 1, 2024, with Blackburn and Johnson winning their respective party nominations. This was the first all-woman general election for a Tennessee senate seat.[2]

Blackburn performed comparably to Donald Trump in the general election overall but notably outperformed him in some key counties. Specifically, she outperformed him in Hamilton, Madison, Shelby, and Washington. She also outperformed Trump in Haywood County—a county he lost and where she had also previously lost—but this time, she managed to flip it.

Although Gloria Johnson campaigned for the Senate seat, she simultaneously sought and won re-election to the State House in the 90th district, where she ran unopposed in that race.[3]

Background

[edit]

At the federal and state levels, Tennessee is considered to be a strongly red state, having gone to Donald Trump by 23 points in the 2020 presidential election. In Tennessee, Republicans occupy both Senate seats, 8 out of 9 U.S. House seats, supermajorities in both state legislative chambers, and the governor's office.

Due to Tennessee's strong conservative bent, this race was considered a "Safe" Republican hold.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Marsha Blackburn

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Marsha Blackburn (R) $14,501,964 $6,339,437 $8,776,627
Source: Federal Election Commission[10]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Blackburn
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Marsha Blackburn (incumbent) 367,799 89.48%
Republican Tres Wittum 43,244 10.52%
Write-in 2 <0.01%
Total votes 411,045 100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Gloria Johnson, state representative from the 90th district (2013–2015, 2019–present)[12]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]
  • Joanne Sowell, attorney[15]

Endorsements

[edit]

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Marquita Bradshaw (D) $36,054 $35,691 $364
Gloria Johnson (D) $5,046,183 $3,009,194 $2,048,985
Source: Federal Election Commission[10]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Marquita
Bradshaw
Gloria
Johnson
Civil
Miller-Watkins
Other Undecided
Targoz Market Research[20][A] March 15 – April 2, 2024 282 (LV) ± 2.77% 7% 38% 2% 1% 52%
Targoz Market Research[21][A] December 14–28, 2023 251 (LV) ± 2.66% 11% 41% 2% 1% 45%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Johnson
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Miller-Watkins
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[22]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gloria Johnson 143,962 70.20%
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw 44,657 21.78%
Democratic Lola Brown 10,027 4.89%
Democratic Civil Miller-Watkins 6,420 3.13%
Total votes 205,066 100.00%

Independents

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Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

General election

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After defeating Former Governor Phil Bredesen by a surprisingly wide margin in 2018, Blackburn sought re-election. She was easily re-nominated as the Republican nominee.[20]

Initially, 2020 Democratic nominee for senate, Marquita Bradshaw was seen as the early favorite but months after her announcement, State Representative Gloria Johnson entered the race. Johnson had gained prominence for her protest on the Tennessee house floor over the 2023 Covenant School Shooting. Of the three representatives involved in the protest, two were expelled from the legislature, while Johnson narrowly avoided expulsion by just one vote. Johnson would go on to easily win the nomination.[12][13]

Throughout the campaign, Blackburn consistently led Johnson in the polls and enjoyed a significant financial edge, with a $9 million fundraising advantage. On October 16, the two candidates were scheduled to debate, but Blackburn declined to attend, leaving Johnson to face an empty chair. [10][23][24]

In the end, Blackburn easily won re-election, improving vastly from her 2018 performance by nearly 19 percentage points. She also narrowly flipped Haywood county, which had voted for Bredesen six years prior. While Johnson did perform well in the traditionally Democratic counties of Shelby and Davidson (Home to the cities of Memphis and Nashville respectively), she lost her home county, Knox County (Home to Knoxville) by a wide margin. [25]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Solid R November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[27] Solid R November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Safe R November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[29] Safe R June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[30] Safe R May 4, 2023
CNalysis[31] Safe R November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[32] Solid R August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[33] Safe R October 23, 2024
538[34] Solid R October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Marsha Blackburn (R) $14,501,964 $6,339,437 $8,776,627
Gloria Johnson (D) $5,069,008 $3,009,194 $2,048,985
Source: Federal Election Commission[10]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Marsha
Blackburn (R)
Gloria
Johnson (D)
Undecided[b] Margin
538[36] through October 28, 2024 October 29, 2024 55.0% 35.7% 9.3% Blackburn +19.3
RCP[37] October 1, 2023 - May 9, 2024 September 9, 2024 50.5% 33.0% 16.5% Blackburn +17.5
TheHill/DDHQ[38] through October 28, 2024 October 29, 2024 59.4% 36.5% 4.1% Blackburn +22.9%
Average 55.0% 35.1% 9.9% Blackburn +19.9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Marsha
Blackburn (R)
Gloria
Johnson (D)
Undecided
ActiVote[39] October 7–28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 61% 39%
ActiVote[40] September 14 – October 18, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 61% 39%
Targoz Market Research[41][A] September 27 – October 8, 2024 1,159 (RV) ± 2.77% 52% 29% 18%[c]
971 (LV) ± 2.77% 54% 31% 15%[d]
ActiVote[42] July 25 – September 2, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 60% 40%
Targoz Market Research[43][A] June 20 – July 1, 2024 1,124 (RV) ± 2.77% 49% 32% 19%
944 (LV) ± 2.77% 52% 32% 16%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[44] April 26 – May 9, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 40% 9%
Targoz Market Research[20][A] March 15 – April 2, 2024 955 (LV) ± 2.77% 45% 29% 26%
Targoz Market Research[45][A] October 5–16, 2023 850 (LV) ± 2.79% 49% 29% 23%
Hypothetical polling

Marsha Blackburn vs. Marquita Bradshaw

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Marsha
Blackburn (R)
Marquita
Bradshaw (D)
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[43][A] June 20 – July 1, 2024 1,124 (RV) ± 2.77% 51% 33% 17%
942 (LV) ± 2.77% 54% 33% 14%
Targoz Market Research[20][A] March 15 – April 2, 2024 947 (LV) ± 2.77% 46% 22% 32%
Targoz Market Research[45][A] October 5–16, 2023 824 (LV) ± 2.79% 48% 36% 17%

Results

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2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee[46]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Marsha Blackburn (incumbent) 1,918,743 63.80% +9.09%
Democratic Gloria Johnson 1,027,461 34.16% −9.76%
Independent Tharon Chandler 28,444 0.95% N/A
Independent Pamela Moses 24,682 0.82% N/A
Independent Hastina Robinson 8,278 0.28% N/A
Total votes 3,007,608 100.00%
2024 Knoxville Ballot

By congressional district

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Blackburn won eight of nine congressional districts.[25]

District Blackburn Johnson Representative
1st 78% 20% Diana Harshbarger
2nd 65% 33% Tim Burchett
3rd 67% 31% Chuck Fleischmann
4th 70% 28% Scott DesJarlais
5th 58% 40% Andy Ogles
6th 66% 32% John W. Rose
7th 60% 38% Mark E. Green
8th 71% 27% David Kustoff
9th 28% 69% Steve Cohen

By county

[edit]
County[25] Marsha Blackburn
Republican
Gloria Johnson
Democratic
Other votes Total

votes

% # % # % #
Anderson 65.83% 23,718 32.16% 11,587 2.00% 722 36,027
Bedford 77.11% 15,098 20.77% 4,067 2.12% 415 19,580
Benton 79.73% 5,653 18.10% 1,283 2.17% 154 7,090
Bledsoe 83.50% 5,061 14.80% 897 1.70% 103 6,061
Blount 72.39% 49,551 25.76% 17,632 1.86% 1,271 68,454
Bradley 78.14% 37,622 19.72% 9,494 2.14% 1,029 48,145
Campbell 81.48% 12,250 16.60% 2,495 1.92% 289 15,034
Cannon 80.31% 5,308 17.72% 1,171 1.97% 130 6,609
Carroll 81.05% 9,446 17.31% 2,017 1.65% 192 11,655
Carter 81.30% 19,687 16.85% 4,081 1.85% 448 24,216
Cheatham 70.84% 14,518 27.14% 5,563 2.02% 414 20,495
Chester 82.86% 6,169 15.25% 1,135 1.89% 141 7,445
Claiborne 82.49% 10,885 16.05% 2,118 1.46% 193 13,196
Clay 81.67% 2,900 16.70% 593 1.63% 58 3,551
Cocke 81.92% 12,471 16.13% 2,456 1.94% 296 15,223
Coffee 75.42% 18,463 22.17% 5,428 2.41% 590 24,481
Crockett 78.95% 4,530 19.59% 1,124 1.46% 84 5,738
Cumberland 78.38% 26,427 20.02% 6,751 1.60% 540 33,718
Davidson 35.08% 100,124 62.83% 179,312 2.09% 5,965 285,401
Decatur 82.93% 4,410 15.25% 811 1.82% 97 5,318
DeKalb 78.99% 7,137 18.89% 1,707 2.11% 191 9,035
Dickson 73.47% 18,149 24.16% 5,967 2.37% 585 24,701
Dyer 79.73% 11,050 18.44% 2,556 1.83% 253 13,859
Fayette 71.92% 16,600 26.48% 6,111 1.60% 370 23,081
Fentress 85.63% 8,064 12.62% 1,188 1.75% 165 9,417
Franklin 74.90% 14,437 23.31% 4,493 1.78% 344 19,274
Gibson 76.98% 16,078 21.00% 4,386 2.02% 422 20,886
Giles 76.32% 10,027 21.65% 2,844 2.03% 267 13,138
Grainger 84.57% 9,226 14.09% 1,537 1.34% 146 10,909
Greene 82.32% 25,157 15.84% 4,841 1.84% 561 30,559
Grundy 81.79% 4,931 15.92% 960 2.29% 138 6,029
Hamblen 77.60% 19,382 20.92% 5,225 1.48% 370 24,977
Hamilton 56.31% 97,475 41.66% 72,115 2.04% 3,527 173,117
Hancock 85.88% 2,365 12.45% 343 1.67% 46 2,754
Hardeman 62.83% 5,731 35.13% 3,204 2.04% 186 9,121
Hardin 84.83% 9,945 13.41% 1,572 1.77% 207 11,724
Hawkins 83.50% 21,209 14.63% 3,715 1.87% 475 25,399
Haywood 50.21% 3,269 47.95% 3,122 1.84% 120 6,511
Henderson 84.12% 9,994 14.34% 1,704 1.53% 182 11,880
Henry 76.62% 11,048 21.40% 3,085 1.98% 286 14,419
Hickman 78.99% 8,055 19.09% 1,947 1.91% 195 10,197
Houston 76.38% 2,814 21.74% 801 1.87% 69 3,684
Humphreys 75.79% 6,153 22.03% 1,789 2.18% 177 8,119
Jackson 78.26% 4,279 19.99% 1,093 1.76% 96 5,468
Jefferson 79.89% 20,239 18.42% 4,666 1.69% 428 25,333
Johnson 84.93% 6,666 13.82% 1,085 1.25% 98 7,849
Knox 58.35% 129,275 40.13% 88,913 1.52% 3,373 221,561
Lake 77.27% 1,414 20.98% 384 1.75% 32 1,830
Lauderdale 68.78% 5,434 29.25% 2,311 1.97% 156 7,901
Lawrence 81.86% 15,484 15.51% 2,933 2.63% 498 18,915
Lewis 80.24% 4,613 17.43% 1,002 2.33% 134 5,749
Lincoln 81.62% 12,744 16.41% 2,562 1.97% 307 15,613
Loudon 75.77% 24,848 22.65% 7,428 1.57% 516 32,792
Macon 84.71% 8,342 13.41% 1,321 1.88% 185 9,848
Madison 60.20% 23,578 37.81% 14,807 1.99% 781 39,166
Marion 75.58% 10,314 22.29% 3,042 2.13% 290 13,646
Marshall 76.40% 11,916 21.74% 3,391 1.85% 289 15,596
Maury 71.02% 36,665 27.14% 14,008 1.84% 950 51,623
McMinn 80.09% 18,934 17.79% 4,205 2.13% 503 23,642
McNairy 83.23% 9,155 15.27% 1,680 1.50% 165 11,000
Meigs 81.47% 4,810 16.68% 985 1.85% 109 5,904
Monroe 81.08% 17,759 16.87% 3,694 2.05% 449 21,902
Montgomery 58.36% 46,104 38.82% 30,669 2.82% 2,230 79,003
Moore 82.38% 2,954 15.20% 545 2.43% 87 3,586
Morgan 84.03% 7,090 14.40% 1,215 1.56% 132 8,437
Obion 82.38% 10,378 16.20% 2,041 1.42% 179 12,598
Overton 79.41% 8,413 18.60% 1,970 1.99% 211 10,594
Perry 82.09% 2,906 16.07% 569 1.84% 65 3,540
Pickett 79.99% 2,306 17.79% 513 2.19% 63 2883
Polk 81.86% 7,041 16.61% 1,429 1.52% 131 8,601
Putnam 71.76% 24,520 26.22% 8,960 2.01% 688 34,168
Rhea 81.77% 11,553 16.17% 2,284 2.07% 292 14,129
Roane 74.89% 20,207 23.18% 6,255 1.93% 520 26,982
Robertson 73.32% 25,146 24.27% 8,322 2.41% 826 34,294
Rutherford 59.28% 86,026 38.32% 55,605 2.40% 3,482 145,113
Scott 86.64% 7,924 11.61% 1,062 1.75% 160 9,146
Sequatchie 81.32% 6,253 16.58% 1,275 2.09% 161 7,689
Sevier 78.81% 34,101 19.41% 8,399 1.78% 770 43,270
Shelby 37.78% 120,568 59.53% 189,954 2.69% 8,572 319,094
Smith 80.54% 7,255 17.50% 1,576 1.96% 177 9,008
Stewart 80.70% 5,201 17.08% 1,101 2.22% 143 6,445
Sullivan 77.42% 57,989 20.89% 15,646 1.69% 1,267 74,902
Sumner 69.49% 66,413 28.38% 27,119 2.13% 2,040 95,572
Tipton 75.47% 19,625 22.46% 5,839 2.07% 539 26,003
Trousdale 76.78% 3,079 21.00% 842 2.22% 89 4,010
Unicoi 81.25% 6,754 16.88% 1,403 1.88% 156 8,313
Union 82.55% 6,834 15.88% 1,315 1.57% 130 8,279
Van Buren 80.57% 2,533 16.92% 532 2.51% 79 3,144
Warren 75.25% 12,287 22.34% 3,648 2.41% 394 16,329
Washington 69.99% 42,160 28.01% 16,872 2.00% 1,205 60,237
Wayne 86.67% 5,690 11.50% 755 1.83% 120 6,565
Weakley 79.16% 10,375 19.03% 2,494 1.82% 238 13,107
White 81.00% 10,316 17.07% 2,174 1.93% 246 12,736
Williamson 65.77% 94,791 32.46% 46,785 1.77% 2,558 144,134
Wilson 68.51% 54,895 29.40% 23,556 2.10% 1,681 80,132

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Moses (I) with 4%; Chandler (I) with 2%
  4. ^ Moses (I) with 5%; Chandler (I) with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2024". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 5, 2024. Retrieved December 6, 2024.
  2. ^ "Results for Women in the August 1st Primaries in Tennessee". cawp.rutgers.edu.
  3. ^ WBIR Channel 10 (February 7, 2024). Rep. Gloria Johnson running for reelection in the TN House while also running for US Senate. Retrieved August 27, 2024 – via YouTube.{{cite AV media}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  4. ^ "Tennessee US Senate Poll". October 17, 2023.
  5. ^ a b c d e "Candidate Lists | Tennessee Secretary of State". sos.tn.gov. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
  6. ^ "Trump Endorses Marsha Blackburn for Re-Election: "A Friend and a WINNER" - Sen. Marsha Blackburn Campaign Press Release | LegiStorm". www.legistorm.com. Retrieved August 2, 2024.
  7. ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  8. ^ "Press Releases | Maggie's List". maggieslist.org. Retrieved June 25, 2023.
  9. ^ "Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  10. ^ a b c d "2024 Election United States Senate - Tennessee". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  11. ^ "August 1, 2024 Republican Primary United States Senate" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 14, 2024.
  12. ^ a b Kamisar, Ben (September 5, 2023). "Tennessee Democrat reprimanded for gun violence protest is running for Senate". NBC News. Retrieved September 5, 2023.
  13. ^ a b Elliott, Stephen (July 20, 2023). "Former Nominee Marquita Bradshaw Running for Senate Again". Nashville Scene. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  14. ^ McCall, Holly (October 26, 2023). "Fayette County educator Civil Miller-Watkins enters Democratic primary for 2024 Tenn. U.S. Senate". Tennessee Lookout. Retrieved January 6, 2024.
  15. ^ Elliott, Stephen (July 14, 2023). "Nashville attorney ends U.S. Senate campaign effort". Nashville Post. Retrieved July 16, 2023.
  16. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z Bloom, Madison (March 13, 2024). "Brittany Howard, Allison Russell, Maren Morris, and More Support U.S. Senate Candidate Gloria Johnson With New Song: Listen". Pitchfork. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
  17. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  18. ^ "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  19. ^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  20. ^ a b c d Targoz Market Research
  21. ^ Targoz Market Research
  22. ^ "August 1, 2024 Democratic Primary United States Senate" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 14, 2024.
  23. ^ Staff, MLK50 (October 16, 2024). "U.S. Senate debate: Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Rep. Gloria Johnson invited". MLK50: Justice Through Journalism. Retrieved December 13, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  24. ^ Williamson County Television (October 17, 2024). U.S. Senate Race Debate - October 16, 2024. Retrieved December 13, 2024 – via YouTube.
  25. ^ a b c State of Tennessee General Election Results, November 5, 2024, Results By County (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. December 2, 2024. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  26. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  27. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  28. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  29. ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  30. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  31. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  32. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  33. ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. May 25, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  34. ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 11, 2024. Archived from the original on October 26, 2024. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  35. ^ "Vivek Ramaswamy Stumps for Senator Blackburn in Knoxville". Marsha Blackburn for U.S. Senate. Retrieved August 27, 2024.
  36. ^ 538
  37. ^ RCP
  38. ^ TheHill/DDHQ
  39. ^ ActiVote
  40. ^ ActiVote
  41. ^ Targoz Market Research
  42. ^ ActiVote
  43. ^ a b Targoz Market Research
  44. ^ SSRS/Vanderbilt University
  45. ^ a b Targoz Market Research
  46. ^ State of Tennessee General Election Results, November 5, 2024, Results By Office (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. December 2, 2024. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
[edit]

Official campaign websites